In October 2025, Governor of Zabaykalsky Krai Alexander Osipov explicitly stated:
“We have exhausted the entire reserve of energy capacity… the total deficit of Zabaykalsky Krai by 2031 is 3.3 gigawatts.”
Official documents from the Ministry of Energy and the System Operator confirm the seriousness of the situation:
- In December 2025, the Zabaykalsky power system recorded a historical maximum consumption of 1,538 MW.
- In early 2026, consumption already reached 1.59 GW.
- According to the Scheme and Program for the Development of Russia’s Electric Power Systems for 2025–2030 / 2026–2031, an uncovered capacity deficit of 1.1–1.46 GW is projected in the southern parts of the power systems of Zabaykalsky Krai and the Republic of Buryatia (depending on the network scheme).
- In the broader southeastern part of the Siberian Unified Energy System (beyond the controlled section “Bratsk – Irkutsk”), the deficit is estimated at 2.5–2.9 GW by 2030.
Even accounting for the approved decisions to build new units at Kharanorskaya GRES (+460 MW) and Zabaykalskaya TES (1,050 MW, commissioning from 2031), demand for capacity continues to grow faster than new generation sources are commissioned.